Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030.

Importance: The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts. Objective: To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023. Exposure: PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles. Main outcomes and measures: Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years). Results: Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions. Conclusions and relevance: This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Comparison of four different human papillomavirus genotyping methods in cervical samples: Addressing method-specific advantages and limitations.

Since human papillomavirus (HPV) is recognized as the causative agent of cervical cancer and associated with anogenital non-cervical and oropharyngeal cancers, the characterization of the HPV types circulating in different geographic regions is an important tool in screening and prevention. In this context, this study compared four methodologies for HPV detection and genotyping: real-time PCR (Cobas® HPV test), nested PCR followed by conventional Sanger sequencing, reverse hybridization (High + Low PapillomaStrip® kit) and next-generation sequencing (NGS) at an Illumina HiSeq2500 platform. Cervical samples from patients followed at the Family Health Strategy from Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil, were collected and subjected to the real-time PCR. Of those, 114 were included in this study according to the results obtained with the real-time PCR, considered herein as the gold standard method. For the 110 samples tested by at least one methodology in addition to real-time PCR, NGS showed the lowest concordance rates of HPV and high-risk HPV identification compared to the other three methods (67-75 %). Real-time PCR and Sanger sequencing showed the highest rates of concordance (97-100 %). All methods differed in their sensitivity and specificity. HPV genotyping contributes to individual risk stratification, therapeutic decisions, epidemiological studies and vaccine development, supporting approaches in prevention, healthcare and management of HPV infection.

Socioeconomic status and cancer survival in Brazil: Analysis of population data from the municipalities of Aracaju and Curitiba, 1996-2012.

INTRODUCTION: The association between socioeconomic status and cancer prognosis has been demonstrated in several countries. Despite the existence of indirect evidence of this phenomenon in Brazil, few studies in this regard are available. OBJECTIVES: The objective of the present study is to analyse socioeconomic related survival gaps for patients diagnosed with breast, cervical, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer in the cities of Aracaju (SE) and Curitiba (PR). METHODS: Using population-based data, we estimated net survival by tumour site, year of diagnosis, socioeconomic status and local of residence. Net survival estimation was done with multilevel parametric model allowing flexible spline functions do estimate excess mortality hazards. RESULTS: 28,005 cases were included in survival analysis. Five-year net survival showed positive association with SES. Intermunicipal survival gaps favouring Aracaju where prominent for breast (reaching 16,1% in 5 years) OBJECTIVES: Study the impact of socioeconomic factors on cancer survival in two Brazilian capitals. METHODS: Survival analysis using population-based cancer data including patients diagnosed with breast, lung, prostate, cervical and colorectal cancer between 1996 and 2012 in Aracaju and Curitiba. Outcomes were excessive mortality hazard (EMH) and 5- and 8-years net survival (NS). The association of race/skin color and socioeconomic level (SES) with EMH and net survival were analyzed using a multilevel regression model with flexible splines. RESULTS: 28,005 cases were included, 6636 from Aracaju and 21,369 from Curitiba. NS for all diseases studied increased more prominently for Curitiba population. We observed NS gap between the populations of Aracaju and Curitiba that increased or remained stable during the study period, with emphasis on the growth of the difference in NS of lung and colon cancer (among men). Only for cervical cancer and prostate cancer there was a reduction in the intermunicipal gaps. 5-year NS for breast cancer in Aracaju ranged from 55.2% to 73.4% according to SES. In Curitiba this variation was from 66.5% to 83.8%. CONCLUSION: The results of the present study suggests widening of socioeconomic and regional inequalities in the survival of patients with colorectal, breast, cervical, lung and prostate cancers in Brazil during the 1990 s and 2000 s.

Frequency and factors associated with delay in breast cancer treatment in Brazil, according to data from the Oncology Panel, 2019-2020.

OBJECTIVE: to analyze treatment delay and the flow of care for women with breast cancer in Brazil in 2019 and 2020. METHOD: this was a follow-up study of breast cancer cases available from the Oncology Panel; a chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression were performed in order to analyze the explanatory variables associated with delay (greater than 60 days) in starting treatment. RESULTS: 22,956 cases (54.5%) with delay in treatment were identified in 2019 and 17,722 (48.7%) in 2020; the Southeast region (54.6%) had the greatest proportion of delay; delay was greater when treatment was provided outside the municipality of residence and lower in 2020 compared to 2019; most outward flows were to the capital cities in the same Federative Units of residence. CONCLUSION: strategies to reduce cancer treatment delay and optimize health care networks in the Federative Units should be prioritized.

Acompanhamento de mulheres rastreadas para o câncer de mama com lesões provavelmente benignas no estado do Rio de Janeiro / Follow-up of women screened for breast cancer with probably benign lesions in Rio de Janeiro state

Resumo Introdução O câncer de mama é a primeira causa de óbito por câncer entre as mulheres no mundo. O rastreamento com mamografia pode detectar lesões iniciais, que se tratadas a evolução será favorável para a maioria dos casos. Objetivo Analisar o seguimento de dois anos das mulheres rastreadas para câncer de mama no estado do Rio de Janeiro, que apresentavam lesões provavelmente benignas (BI-RADS® 3) em 2011. Método Estudo de coorte retrospectiva com dados dos Sistemas de Informação (SIS) do Câncer de Mama (SISMAMA) e de Mortalidade (SIM), utilizando relacionamento probabilístico entre as bases de dados para recuperação do seguimento. A investigação dos fatores associados à repetição do exame de controle baseou-se no modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Resultados Foram identificadas 1.261 mulheres com resultado BI-RADS® 3, dentre as quais foram encontrados o seguimento de 498 mulheres nos SIS. A maioria apresentou resultado normal ou benigno no controle (51,1%). O tempo mediano da repetição do exame foi de 12 meses; com menor tempo para mulheres ≤ 70 anos, residiam fora da capital e apresentavam risco para câncer de mama. Conclusão O tempo de repetição da mamografia encontrado foi superior ao recomendado, indicando necessidade de aprimoramento do rastreamento do câncer de mama.

Abstract Background Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer deaths among women worldwide. Mammography screening can detect initial lesions, which, if treated, will have a favorable outcome in most cases. Objective To analyze the two-year follow-up of women screened for breast cancer in the state of Rio de Janeiro, who had probable benign lesions (BI-RADS® 3) in 2011. Method A retrospective cohort study with data from the Breast Cancer Information Systems (SISMAMA) and Mortality System (SIM), using a probabilistic linkage between the recovery of follow-up databases. The investigation of factors associated with repeat screening was based on Cox's proportional hazards model. Results 1261 women were identified with BI-RADS® 3 results, of which 498 women received follow-up screening in the SIS. Most presented normal or benign results in the control (51.1%). The median time for repeat screening was 12 months; with shorter time for women ≤ 70 years old, those who lived outside the capital and those who were at risk of breast cancer. Conclusion The mammography repetition time observed was longer than recommended, indicating the need to improve breast cancer screening rates.

Frequência e fatores associados ao atraso para o tratamento do câncer de mama no Brasil, segundo dados do PAINEL-Oncologia, 2019-2020 / Frecuencia y factores asociados al retraso en el tratamiento del cáncer de mama en Brasil, según datos del Panel de Oncología, 2019-2020 / Frequency and factors associated with delay in breast cancer treatment in Brazil, according to data from the Oncology Panel, 2019-2020

Objective: to analyze treatment delay and the flow of care for women with breast cancer in Brazil in 2019 and 2020. Method: this was a follow-up study of breast cancer cases available from the Oncology Panel; a chi-square test and multilevel logistic regression were performed in order to analyze the explanatory variables associated with delay (greater than 60 days) in starting treatment. Results: 22,956 cases (54.5%) with delay in treatment were identified in 2019 and 17,722 (48.7%) in 2020; the Southeast region (54.6%) had the greatest proportion of delay; delay was greater when treatment was provided outside the municipality of residence and lower in 2020 compared to 2019; most outward flows were to the capital cities in the same Federative Units of residence. Conclusion: strategies to reduce cancer treatment delay and optimize health care networks in the Federative Units should be prioritized.

Resumen Objetivo: analizar la demora en el tratamiento y el flujo asistencial de mujeres con cáncer de mama en Brasil en 2019 y 2020. Método: estudio de seguimiento de los casos de cáncer de mama disponibles en el Panel de Oncología. Para analizar las variables explicativas asociadas al retraso (mayor de 60 días) en el inicio del tratamiento se realizó la prueba de chi-cuadrado y la regresión logística multinivel. Resultados: se identificaron 22.956 casos (54,5%) en 2019 y 17.722 (48,7%) en 2020 con retraso en el tratamiento. La región Sudeste (54,6%) tuvo mayor proporción de atraso, siendo mayor cuando se realizó fuera del municipio de residencia y menor en 2020 en relación a 2019. Los flujos externos, en su mayoría, ocurrieron en las capitales de las mismas Unidades de la Federación (UFs) de residencia. Conclusión: se deben priorizar estrategias que reduzcan el intervalo de tiempo hasta el inicio del tratamiento del cáncer y optimicen las redes de atención de salud en los estados.

Objetivo: analisar o atraso para o tratamento e o fluxo assistencial de mulheres com câncer de mama no Brasil em 2019 e 2020. Métodos: estudo de seguimento de casos de câncer de mama disponibilizados no PAINEL-Oncologia; para analisar as variáveis explicativas associadas ao atraso (maior que 60 dias) no início do tratamento, realizou-se teste qui-quadrado e regressão logística multinível. Resultados: identificaram-se 22.956 casos (54,5%) em 2019 e 17.722 (48,7%) em 2020, com atraso para o tratamento; a região Sudeste (54,6%) teve maior proporção de atraso, que foi maior quando o tratamento foi realizado fora do município de residência, e menor em 2020, comparando-se a 2019; os fluxos externos, em sua maioria, ocorreram para as capitais das mesmas Unidades da Federação (UFs) de residência. Conclusão: estratégias que diminuam o intervalo de tempo até o início do tratamento oncológico e otimizem as redes de atenção em saúde nas UFs devem ser priorizadas.

Association between obesity and COVID-19 mortality and length of stay in intensive care unit patients in Brazil: a retrospective cohort study.

The present study aimed to evaluate the association between obesity and COVID-19 mortality and length of stay in ICU patients, and how these associations were modified by age groups. We performed a retrospective multicenter cohort study with data obtained from a hospital-based registry. The sample consisted of 8183 ICU hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Cox proportional models were used to evaluate the association between BMI categories and COVID-19 mortality and generalized linear models for the length of stay in the ICU. After adjusting for confounders, those in the younger group with severe obesity had an increased risk of COVID-19 mortality compared to those with normal/overweight (HR 1.27; 95% CI 1.01-1.61). An increased risk of death was also observed for patients with underweight (HR 3.74; 95% CI 1.39-10.07). For patients aged ≥ 60 year, mild/moderate obesity was associated with reduced mortality risk (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.78-0.97). For the age group < 60 year, the length of stay in ICU for those patients with severe obesity was 35% higher compared to the normal/overweight category (eß 1.35; 95% CI 1.21-1.51). Conversely, for the survivors in the underweight category, the length of stay in ICU was 51% lower compared to the normal/overweight group (eß 0.49; 95% CI 0.31-0.78). In the age group ≥ 60 year, mild/moderate obesity was associated with an increased length of stay in the ICU (eß 1.10; 95% CI 1.01-1.21), adjusting for confounders. These findings could be helpful for health professionals to identify subgroups at higher risk for worse outcomes.

Ethnic, racial and socioeconomic disparities in breast cancer survival in two Brazilian capitals between 1996 and 2012.

OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of socio-economic status and ethno-racial strata on excess mortality hazard and net survival of women with breast cancer in two Brazilian state capitals. METHOD: We conducted a survival analysis with individual data from population-based cancer registries including women with breast cancer diagnosed between 1996 and 2012 in Aracaju and Curitiba. The main outcomes were the excess mortality hazard (EMH) and net survival. The associations of age, year of diagnosis, disease stage, race/skin colour and socioeconomic status (SES) with the excess mortality hazard and net survival were analysed using multi-level spline regression models, modelled as cubic splines with knots at 1 and 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 2045 women in Aracaju and 7872 in Curitiba were included in the analyses. The EMH was higher for women with lower SES and for black and brown women in both municipalities. The greatest difference in excess mortality was seen between the most deprived women and the most affluent women in Curitiba, hazard ratio (HR) 1.93 (95%CI 1.63-2.28). For race/skin colour, the greatest ratio was found in Curitiba (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.09-1.66) for black women compared with white women. The most important socio-economic difference in net survival was seen in Aracaju. Age-standardised net survival at five years was 55.7% for the most deprived women and 67.2% for the most affluent. Net survival at eight years was 48.3% and 61.0%, respectively. Net survival in Curitiba was higher than in Aracaju in all SES groups." CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest the presence of contrasting breast cancer survival expectancy in Aracaju and Curitiba, highlighting regional inequalities in access to health care. Lower survival among brown and black women, and those in lower SES groups indicates that early detection, early diagnosis and timely access to treatment must be prioritized to reduce inequalities in outcome among Brazilian women.

Excess mortality by specific causes of deaths in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the excess of deaths by specific causes, in the first half of 2020 in the city of São Paulo-Brazil, during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Ecological study conducted from 01/01 to 06/30 of 2019 and 2020. Population and mortality data were obtained from DATASUS. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) by age was calculated by comparing the standardized mortality rate in 2020 to that of 2019, for overall and specific mortality. The ratio between the standardized mortality rate due to COVID-19 in men as compared to women was calculated for 2020. Crude mortality rates were standardized using the direct method. RESULTS: COVID-19 was responsible for 94.4% of the excess deaths in São Paulo. In 2020 there was an increase in overall mortality observed among both men (SMR 1.3, 95% CI 1.17-1.42) and women (SMR 1.2, 95% CI 1.06-1.36) as well as a towards reduced mortality for all cancers. Mortality due to COVID-19 was twice as high for men as for women (SMR 2.1, 95% CI 1.67-2.59). There was an excess of deaths observed in men above 45 years of age, and in women from the age group of 60 to 79 years. CONCLUSION: There was an increase in overall mortality during the first six months of 2020 in São Paulo, which seems to be related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Chronic health conditions, such as cancer and other non-communicable diseases, should not be disregarded.

Follow-up of women screened for cervical cancer in São Paulo, Brazil: An analysis of the times to diagnostic investigation and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates are higher in Brazil than in western countries. Access to cytology-based screening has increased in the country in recent decades, but few studies have assessed the quality of the follow-up care of women with abnormal screening tests that require further investigation. METHODS: A record-linkage cohort study was conducted in São Paulo state. Women aged 25+ years, who were screened in 2010, and whose test revealed a high-grade, or more severe, lesion were eligible. Follow-up information on diagnostic investigations, treatments and mortality was obtained through record-linkage of health databases. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate median times between screening and diagnostic investigation, and diagnosis and treatment initiation. Cox survival models were used to identify correlates of the length of these time intervals. RESULTS: 4300 women had a high-grade, or more severe, test result. Of these, 2788 (64.8 %) had a diagnostic investigation record, 1763 (41 %) a confirmed diagnosis of a precursor lesion or cancer, and 1247 (70.7 %) a treatment record. The median time to diagnosis was 190 days, with the probability of undergoing a diagnostic investigation within 30 days of the abnormal screening test being 7%. The median time to treatment was 81 days, with the probability of undergoing treatment within 60 days of a confirmed diagnosis being 44 %. Delays in diagnosis and treatment were associated with area-based healthcare indicators. CONCLUSION: Times to diagnosis and treatment were long, well above recommendations. Strategies to improve follow-up care must be prioritized to ensure screening reduces cervical cancer incidence and mortality.

Age-standardized COVID-19 mortality in the capitals of different regions of Brazil / Mortalidad por COVID-19 estandarizado por edad en las capitales de diferentes regiones de Brasil / MORTALIDADE POR COVID-19 NO BRASIL AJUSTADA POR IDADE: MAIS ALTA NA REGIÃO NORTE

The marked increase in cases and deaths by Covid-19 has led to a significant overload on the health system in Brazil, especially in the cities of Manaus and Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo. The description of the pandemic's impact has been based on absolute numbers or crude mortality rates without considering the pattern of distribution of age groups in different regions of the country. This study aims to compare the crude mortality rates for Covid-19 with standardized rates for age in the Brazilian states' capitals and in the Federal District. Information on death was accessed in the Influenza Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe), and the population denominators were based on the estimates available by the Ministry of Health. The age structure of Brazil's estimated population for 2020 was used as standard to calculate the age-standardized rates. The results show that the highest crude rates were observed in Manaus (253.6/100,000) and Rio de Janeiro (253.2/100,000). After age-standardization, there was a significant increase in rates in the North region. The highest adjusted rate was seen in Manaus (412.5/100,000), where 33% of deaths by Covid-19 occurred among individuals under 60. The mortality over 70 years old doubled if compared to Rio de Janeiro and tripled if compared to Sao Paulo. The use of age-standardized mortality rates eliminates interpretive biases, exposing the even greater weight of Covid-19 in the northern region of country.

O crescimento acentuado de casos e óbitos por Covid-19 tem levado a grande sobrecarga do sistema de saúde no Brasil em especial em cidades com Manaus e Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. A descrição do impacto da pandemia tem se baseado em números absolutos ou taxas de mortalidade brutas não considerando o padrão de distribuição das faixas etárias nas diferentes regiões do país. Este estudo tem por objetivo comparar a taxas de mortalidade brutas por Covid-19 com taxas padronizadas por idade nas capitais dos estados brasileiras e no Distrito Federal. As informações sobre óbito foram acessadas no Sistema de Informação de Vigilância da Gripe (SIVEP-Gripe) e os denominadores populacionais foram baseados nas estimativas disponibilizadas pelo Ministério da Saúde. Para o cálculo das padronizadas por idade utilizou-se a estrutura etária da população do Brasil estimada para 2020. Os resultados mostram que as maiores taxas brutas foram em Manaus (253,6/100.000) e Rio de Janeiro (253,2/100.000). Após padronização por idade, houve aumento expressivo das taxas na região Norte. A maior taxa ajustada foi vista em Manaus (412,5/100.000) onde 33% de óbitos por Covid-19 ocorreram entre menores de 60 anos. A mortalidade acima de 70 anos foi o dobro se comparada à do Rio  de Janeiro e o triplo se comparada à de São Paulo. A utilização de taxas de mortalidade padronizadas por idade elimina vieses interpretativos expondo de forma marcante o peso ainda maior da Covid-19 na região Norte do país.

The current challenges of the fight for a universal right to health in Brazil. / Os desafios atuais da luta pelo direito universal à saúde no Brasil.

Brazil has changed a lot since the enactment of the 1988 Federal Constitution. Although substantial advances have occurred in the health sector, old problems persist and new ones arise. The main goal of ensuring the universal right to health has not been achieved. The 16th National Health Conference will be held in 2019, an opportune moment to analyze the history, the present moment and the announcing trends. This text seeks to contribute to this analysis based on the results of studies on the developing health conditions of the population and the Brazilian health system in the last 30 years. It identifies the strengthening of the private sector and capital in the health sector, to the detriment of the public interest and the SUS. Finally, it discusses the strategies of the struggle for the right to health necessary and possible in the current context.

Desde a promulgação da Constituição federal de 1988, o Brasil mudou muito. Na saúde, embora tenham ocorrido avanços importantes, persistem problemas antigos e novos têm surgido. O objetivo maior de assegurar o direito universal à saúde não foi alcançado. Em 2019, realiza-se a 16ª Conferência Nacional de Saúde, momento oportuno para analisar a história, o momento presente e as tendências que se anunciam. Este texto busca contribuir para essa análise, com base nos resultados de estudos sobre a evolução das condições de saúde da população e do sistema de saúde brasileiro nos últimos 30 anos. Identifica o fortalecimento do setor privado e do capital na área da saúde, em detrimento do interesse público e do SUS. Por fim, discute as estratégias de luta pelo direito à saúde necessárias e possíveis no contexto atual.

Os desafios atuais da luta pelo direito universal à saúde no Brasil / The current challenges of the fight for a universal right to health in Brazil

Resumo Desde a promulgação da Constituição federal de 1988, o Brasil mudou muito. Na saúde, embora tenham ocorrido avanços importantes, persistem problemas antigos e novos têm surgido. O objetivo maior de assegurar o direito universal à saúde não foi alcançado. Em 2019, realiza-se a 16ª Conferência Nacional de Saúde, momento oportuno para analisar a história, o momento presente e as tendências que se anunciam. Este texto busca contribuir para essa análise, com base nos resultados de estudos sobre a evolução das condições de saúde da população e do sistema de saúde brasileiro nos últimos 30 anos. Identifica o fortalecimento do setor privado e do capital na área da saúde, em detrimento do interesse público e do SUS. Por fim, discute as estratégias de luta pelo direito à saúde necessárias e possíveis no contexto atual.

Abstract Brazil has changed a lot since the enactment of the 1988 Federal Constitution. Although substantial advances have occurred in the health sector, old problems persist and new ones arise. The main goal of ensuring the universal right to health has not been achieved. The 16th National Health Conference will be held in 2019, an opportune moment to analyze the history, the present moment and the announcing trends. This text seeks to contribute to this analysis based on the results of studies on the developing health conditions of the population and the Brazilian health system in the last 30 years. It identifies the strengthening of the private sector and capital in the health sector, to the detriment of the public interest and the SUS. Finally, it discusses the strategies of the struggle for the right to health necessary and possible in the current context.

Ethnoracial and social trends in breast cancer staging at diagnosis in Brazil, 2001-14: a case only analysis.

BACKGROUND: Policies for early detection of breast cancer, including clinical breast examinations and mammographic screening, were introduced in Brazil in 2004, but their effect on disease stage at diagnosis is unclear. We aimed to assess whether these policies have led to a decrease in the prevalence of late-stage breast cancer at diagnosis. METHODS: In this case only analysis, using an anonymised nationwide hospital based-cancer registry network, we identified women aged 18-89 years who had been diagnosed with an invasive breast cancer in Brazil during 2001-14. We extracted individual patient-level data on patient demographics, tumour variables, and health-care provider variables for the centre where the patient was diagnosed. Our objectives were to estimate the prevalence of late-stage breast cancer (TNM stage III or IV) at diagnosis overall, across age groups, and by ethnoracial and social strata (ie, self-reported ethnoracial group, as white, black, brown, Asian, or Indigenous, and educational level, marital status, and region of residence) across the study period, and compare these estimates with international data from high-income countries (Norway and the USA). We used logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for late-stage versus early-stage (TNM stage I or II) breast cancer at diagnosis in relation to relevant exposures, either minimally adjusted (for age, year of diagnosis, and region of residence) or fully adjusted (for all patient, tumour, and health-care provider variables). FINDINGS: We identified 247 719 women who were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2014, with a mean age at diagnosis of 55·4 years (SD 13·3), of whom 36·2% (n=89 550) identified as white, 29·8% (n=73 826) as black or brown, and 0·7% (n=1639) as Asian or Indigenous. Prevalence of late-stage breast cancer at diagnosis remained high throughout 2001-14, at approximately 40%, was inversely associated with educational level (p value for linear trend <0·0001), and was higher for women who identified as black (minimally adjusted OR 1·61, 95% CI 1·53-1·70; fully adjusted OR 1·45, 95% CI 1·38-1·54) and brown (minimally adjusted OR 1·26, 95% CI 1·22-1·30; fully adjusted OR 1·18, 1·14-1·23) than those who identified as white. The predicted prevalence of late-stage cancer at diagnosis was highest for women who were black or brown with little or no formal education (48·8%, 95% CI 48·2-49·5) and lowest for women who were white with university education (29·4%, 28·2-30·6), but both these prevalences were higher than that of all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Norway before the introduction of mammography screening (ie, 16·3%, 95% CI 15·4%-17·2% in 1970-74). Similar ethnoracial and social patterns emerged in analyses restricted to the age group targeted by screening (50-69 years). INTERPRETATION: The persistently high prevalence of late-stage breast cancer at diagnosis across all ethnoracial and social strata in Brazil, although more substantially among the most disadvantaged populations, implies that early detection policies might have had little effect on breast cancer mortality so far, and highlights the need to focus primarily on timely diagnosis of symptomatic breast cancer rather than on screening for asymptomatic disease. FUNDING: Newton Fund, Research Councils UK, and Conselho Nacional das Fundações Estaduais de Amparo à Pesquisa.

Global surveillance of trends in cancer survival 2000-14 (CONCORD-3): analysis of individual records for 37 513 025 patients diagnosed with one of 18 cancers from 322 population-based registries in 71 countries.

BACKGROUND: In 2015, the second cycle of the CONCORD programme established global surveillance of cancer survival as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems and to inform global policy on cancer control. CONCORD-3 updates the worldwide surveillance of cancer survival to 2014. METHODS: CONCORD-3 includes individual records for 37·5 million patients diagnosed with cancer during the 15-year period 2000-14. Data were provided by 322 population-based cancer registries in 71 countries and territories, 47 of which provided data with 100% population coverage. The study includes 18 cancers or groups of cancers: oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, liver, pancreas, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, prostate, and melanoma of the skin in adults, and brain tumours, leukaemias, and lymphomas in both adults and children. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were rectified by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS: For most cancers, 5-year net survival remains among the highest in the world in the USA and Canada, in Australia and New Zealand, and in Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. For many cancers, Denmark is closing the survival gap with the other Nordic countries. Survival trends are generally increasing, even for some of the more lethal cancers: in some countries, survival has increased by up to 5% for cancers of the liver, pancreas, and lung. For women diagnosed during 2010-14, 5-year survival for breast cancer is now 89·5% in Australia and 90·2% in the USA, but international differences remain very wide, with levels as low as 66·1% in India. For gastrointestinal cancers, the highest levels of 5-year survival are seen in southeast Asia: in South Korea for cancers of the stomach (68·9%), colon (71·8%), and rectum (71·1%); in Japan for oesophageal cancer (36·0%); and in Taiwan for liver cancer (27·9%). By contrast, in the same world region, survival is generally lower than elsewhere for melanoma of the skin (59·9% in South Korea, 52·1% in Taiwan, and 49·6% in China), and for both lymphoid malignancies (52·5%, 50·5%, and 38·3%) and myeloid malignancies (45·9%, 33·4%, and 24·8%). For children diagnosed during 2010-14, 5-year survival for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia ranged from 49·8% in Ecuador to 95·2% in Finland. 5-year survival from brain tumours in children is higher than for adults but the global range is very wide (from 28·9% in Brazil to nearly 80% in Sweden and Denmark). INTERPRETATION: The CONCORD programme enables timely comparisons of the overall effectiveness of health systems in providing care for 18 cancers that collectively represent 75% of all cancers diagnosed worldwide every year. It contributes to the evidence base for global policy on cancer control. Since 2017, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has used findings from the CONCORD programme as the official benchmark of cancer survival, among their indicators of the quality of health care in 48 countries worldwide. Governments must recognise population-based cancer registries as key policy tools that can be used to evaluate both the impact of cancer prevention strategies and the effectiveness of health systems for all patients diagnosed with cancer. FUNDING: American Cancer Society; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Swiss Re; Swiss Cancer Research foundation; Swiss Cancer League; Institut National du Cancer; La Ligue Contre le Cancer; Rossy Family Foundation; US National Cancer Institute; and the Susan G Komen Foundation.

Association between home posture habits and neck pain in High School adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Neck pain (NP) in adolescence is as frequent as in adulthood. However, the relationship between home posture habits and neck pain is still unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence of NP and the association with home posture habits (HPH) in adolescents. METHODS: Cross-sectional study with High School adolescents. Students answered questions regarding sociodemographic variables, lifestyle, HPH (illustration in the questionnaire), time (TV, computer, video-game) and the presence of NP. Multivariate logistic regression was used to investigate the association between HPH and NP. RESULTS: The prevalence of NP was 48.9%. The ones who watched TV lying supine in bed for 2 hours or more a day yielded an odds ratio (OR) of 6.21 (1.45-26.52) for acute neck pain (ANP). Who watched TV and used the desktop in the slump posture yielded, respectively, an OR of 4.0 (1.63-9.85), and 2.03 (1.23-3.34) for chronic neck pain (CNP). The ones who frequently changed their positions while using the desktop and used it for 2 hours or more a day yielded an OR of 0.34 (0.14-0.85) for ANP. CONCLUSION: Our findings support the high prevalence of NP in adolescence and raise the association between some HPH and neck pain.

Predictive Capability of HPV and Pap Tests in Screening for Cervical Cancer over a Three-Year Follow-up.

PURPOSE: To compare the predictive capability of HPV and Pap smear tests for screening pre-cancerous lesions of the cervix over a three-year follow-up, in a population of users of the Brazilian National Health System (SUS). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 2,032 women with satisfactory results for Pap smear and HPV tests using second-generation hybrid capture, made in a previous study. We followed them for 36 months with data obtained from medical records, the Cervix Cancer Information System (SISCOLO), and the Mortality Information System (SIM). The outcome was a histological diagnosis of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or more advanced lesions (CIN2+). We constructed progression curves of the baseline test results for the period, using the Kaplan-Meier method, and estimated sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios for each test. RESULTS: A total of 1,440 women had at least one test during follow-up. Progression curves of the baseline test results indicated differences in capability to detect CIN2+ (p < 0.001) with significantly greater capability when both tests were abnormal, followed by only a positive HPV test. The HPV test was more sensitive than the Pap smear (88.7% and 73.6%, respectively; p < 0.05) and had a better negative likelihood ratio (0.13 and 0.30, respectively). Specificity and positive likelihood ratio of the tests were similar. CONCLUSIONS: These findings corroborate the importance of HPV test as a primary cervical cancer screening.

The Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Ways of Life, Infections, Occupation, and Environmental Agents in Brazil in 2020.

Many human cancers develop as a result of exposure to risk factors related to the environment and ways of life. The aim of this study was to estimate attributable fractions of 25 types of cancers resulting from exposure to modifiable risk factors in Brazil. The prevalence of exposure to selected risk factors among adults was obtained from population-based surveys conducted from 2000 to 2008. Risk estimates were based on data drawn from meta-analyses or large, high quality studies. Population-attributable fractions (PAF) for a combination of risk factors, as well as the number of preventable deaths and cancer cases, were calculated for 2020. The known preventable risk factors studied will account for 34% of cancer cases among men and 35% among women in 2020, and for 46% and 39% deaths, respectively. The highest attributable fractions were estimated for tobacco smoking, infections, low consumption of fruits and vegetables, excess weight, reproductive factors, and physical inactivity. This is the first study to systematically estimate the fraction of cancer attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors in Brazil. Strategies for primary prevention of tobacco smoking and control of infection and the promotion of a healthy diet and physical activity should be the main priorities in policies for cancer prevention in the country.